Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Idiot Election ... Thank God It's Almost Over

I am so glad to see this election almost over. Over $2 billion was spent on political ads -- mostly negative (over 90% from Republicans, over 80% from Democrats). Two 2008 presidential contenders took themselves out of the running -- John Kerry with his "botched joke" that came out as a slam against the intelligence of the troops in Iraq, and George Allen, who ran the worst Senate campaign in perhaps the last three decades. We saw in Tennessee the most racist campaign ad since Willie Horton, and we saw truly bizarre media coverage (like MSNBC reporter Contessa Brewer referring to the race in PA, where William Casey was leading *incumbent* Rick Santorum by 13 points as "tight" and "coming down to the wire", while in TN, where Bob Corker led Harold Ford by 12 points in an open seat, the race was "over.")

Anyway, before the polls close, here are my predictions, for what they are worth:

We'll see how good at politics I am.

House -- Democrats net 24 seats. Let the investigations begin!

Senate - Race by race (ones that are even remotely competitive):

PA: Casey over Santorum
OH: Brown over DeWine
MO: McCaskill over Talent
MT: Tester over Burns
TN: Corker over Ford
RI: Chaffee over Whitehouse
NJ: Menendez over Kean
MD: Cardin over Steele
AZ: Petersen over Kyl
VA: Webb over Allen
MI: Stabenow over Bouchard
MN: Klobuchar over Kennedy

Dems net 6.

RI and AZ are against conventional wisdom, but Chaffee has the momentum in RI and Petersen has closed to 2 in AZ and Kyl is not over 50%. Also, the anti-gay marriage amendment in AZ may go down to defeat, which helps Democrats. There are also three House races in AZ that should go Rep but look like Dem upsets.

Normally, I would be concerned that a Chaffee upset would suppress Dem turnout in AZ, but I think that race won't be called until the wee hours of the morning because Chaffee will win by less than a percentage point. Whitehouse should have coasted to victory in such a Democratic state, but he sucks as a candidate.

Thank goodness that the election is this Tuesday, because Cardin has not run very well (he is exciting as watching wood warp), but should hold on. Casey has also run a pretty tepid campaign, but in the last week has run an ad with his family in it (his daughters are shown talking about his virtues) and it's the one ad that makes him look human. McCaskill squeeks by in MO because Talent is on the wrong side of the stem cell initiative.

Of course, the Democratic elation over the Senate victory is short-lived. In January, Rumsfeld steps down. The Republicans call in their markers for helping Joe Lieberman win his independent bid in CT, and ask him to be Secretary of State. Lieberman accepts, and CT Governor Jody Rell, a Republican, picks a Republican to replace Lieberman. The Senate goes to 50-50 and Darth Cheney gets to cast deciding votes.

Dems pick up 7 governorships, so there'll be 29 Dems and 21 Reps in state houses.

So, by Tuesday (or maybe Wednesday, or maybe Thursday, or maybe by Thanksgiving), I will either look like I know something about politics, or be a complete idiot.


Blogger Askinstoo said...

Hi, i was looking over your blog and didn't
quite find what I was looking for. I'm looking for
different ways to earn money... I did find this though...
a place where you can make some nice extra cash secret shopping.
I made over $900 last month having fun!
make extra money

6:55 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home